UK GDP first estimate for July to September due on Thursday
The ONS publishes third-quarter GDP, September's monthly figure, trade and business investment on 12 November, a week after the Bank of England raised Bank Rate to 4%.
By Daily Oracles News Team2 min read
The main economic release of the coming week lands at 7am on Thursday 12 November, when the Office for National Statistics (ONS) publishes its first estimate of gross domestic product for July to September.
It comes a week after the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee voted 8-1 to raise Bank Rate by a quarter of a point to 4%, with the one dissenting member preferring a half-point rise to 4.25%.
Thursday's releases
Several related figures come out at the same time:
- the first quarterly estimate of GDP for July to September
- the monthly GDP estimate for September
- the index of production and the index of services for September
- UK trade for September
- construction output in Great Britain for September, with new orders and construction output price indices for July to September
At 9:30am the same morning the ONS adds provisional business investment figures for the third quarter.
Where things stood
The last monthly estimate, published on 15 October, showed the economy grew by 0.1% in August and by 0.7% in the three months to August compared with the three months to May.
The Bank of England's November Monetary Policy Report gives an early read on the quarter. It expects growth to have picked up from 0.5% in the second quarter to 0.7% in the third. Bank staff also draw on an indicator built from business surveys to judge the economy's momentum, and that points to growth of 0.2% in the third quarter. The report said higher inflation, tighter financial conditions and continuing fiscal consolidation were expected to offset support from AI-related activity and business investment. It expects GDP growth to slow in the fourth quarter and in 2027.
The rest of the week and the next
On Friday 13 November the ONS publishes new figures on short-term lets booked through online platforms, covering guest nights and stays from July 2023 to June 2026.
The labour market figures for November are due at 7am on Tuesday 17 November, and consumer price inflation for October at 7am on Wednesday 18 November.
