OPEC+ holds December oil output targets as Brent slips below $110

Seven core members of OPEC+ left their December oil production targets unchanged at an online meeting on Sunday, and said nothing about adding barrels later. Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman will keep to September's required level, a combined total of about 31 million barrels a day. Saudi Arabia's December target is 10.478 million barrels a day and Russia's is 9.949 million.

The targets matter less than usual this autumn. The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively shut since the Iran war began on 28 February, and most of the group is pumping well below its quota.

Oil moved on diplomacy instead. Brent was down $4.20, or 3.7%, at $109.23 a barrel at 0900 GMT on Monday, Reuters reported, after talks between Iranian and Qatari officials.

The December contract expired on Friday at $117.64, the highest since April, but Monday's fall is measured from the more active January contract, which settled that day at $113.43.

What the group decides next

A review of members' production capacity, needed before 2027 baselines can be set, is now expected by mid-November. All 21 members then meet on 29 November, when analysts expect 2027 quotas to be settled. Cuts of about 2 million barrels a day cover most members until the end of 2026. The IEA and other forecasters have warned of excess supply in 2027 if Gulf flows return to normal.

For the UK, the price feeds into fuel and energy costs. The Bank of England, which announces its next decision on Thursday 5 November, looks set to raise interest rates from 3.75%, Reuters reported. Inflation stood at 3.5% in September, the ONS said.